Saturday, October 29, 2022

 DISASTER MANAGEMENT 

    The word Disaster is from a French word Disaster meaning bad or evil star. However this is a very narrow conception of disaster and in our context, any disaster means a situation in which there is a sudden disruption of normalcy within society causing widespread damage to life and property. Typology of disaster- A disaster can be either natural [rain, flood, cyclone, storm, land slides, earthquake, volcanoes] or man made [war including biological, arson, sabotage, riots, accident (train, air, ship), industrial accidents, fires (forest fires), bomb explosions, nuclear explosions and ecological disasters]. The discussion here is confined to the natural disasters. 

     Pre-Independence, droughts and famines were the biggest killers in India. The situation has changed due to a combination of factors like irrigation development, food security measures. Floods, cyclones, droughts, landslides, avalanches and earthquakes are some of the major natural disasters that repeatedly and increasingly affect the country. Vulnerability- Vulnerability is defined as the extent to which a community, structure, service, or geographic area is likely to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction and proximity to hazardous terrain or a disaster prone area. 

        In 1989, the General Assembly of the United Nations proclaimed the decade 1999-2000 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). At the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction in the city of Yokohama, Japan in 1994, deep concern was expressed at the continuing human suffering and disruption of development due to natural disasters and a Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safe World was developed. This was a definitive step in Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness Planning. It is not possible to do away with the devastation due to natural hazards completely. However, destruction from natural hazards can be minimized by the presence of well-functioning warning systems, combined with preparedness on the part of the vulnerable community. Disaster management may be seen as a part of good governance. 

Basic concepts of Emergency Management- The basic concept suggests that the same management strategies can be applied to all emergencies. Emergencies do not just appear one day, rather they exist throughout time and have a life-cycle of occurrence, and hence the management strategy should match the phases of an emergency in order to mitigate, prepare, respond and recover from its effect. There are four phases in Emergency Management: Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery. The four phases are visualized as having a circular relationship to each other (Emergency Management Cycle). overlap those in the previous one. Pre-Emergency Redevelopment Preparedness Prevention Emergency 

    Mitigation: refers to activities which actually eliminate or reduce the vulnerability or chance of occurrence or the effects of a disaster. Mitigation phase begins with conducting hazard identification and vulnerability analysis which are essential to the planning of all other phases. Hazard identification and vulnerability analysis is a two step process. First the hazard is identified which has the potential of affecting the population. Secondly, how people, property and structures will be affected by the disastrous event. 

    Preparedness: is a state of being ready to react promptly and effectively in the event of an emergency. Being prepared means that a plan of action exists for an emergency so that it is clear as to what to do before the emergency occurs. Preparedness measures to be undertaken depends upon the analysis of hazard severity and vulnerability, which is also the basis for deciding mitigation strategy. In some cases, such as a flood or hurricane, an early warning gives several hours to act. However, often no prior warning of an impending emergency, such as with earthquakes, tornadoes, explosions, or major fires is possible. Preparedness for any emergency, especially those, which strike without notice, requires a plan. It is essential to identify the resources available, and ways to utilize them. It must also be reasonably certain that the plan will work in an emergency situation. Preparedness Plan- The purpose of a plan is to provide a systematic way of responding to an emergency situation. The following aspects should be taken into consideration in the development of Emergency Preparedness Plan. 1. Identification of possible emergency situations which may occur in an area. 2. Deployment of officer in charge in case of emergency 3. Developing a strategy for activities likely to be undertaken and resources which could be of use 4. Identifying government bodies responsible to respond in case of emergency 5. Establishment of Emergency Operation Center (EOC) or Control Room to carry on emergency operations Response activities occur during and immediately following a disaster. They are designed to provide emergency assistance to victims of the event and reduce the likelihood of secondary damage. The five basic stages of response to an emergency or disaster are (i) Notification/ Warning, (ii) Immediate Public Safety, (iii) Property Security, (iv) Public Welfare, and(v) Restoration. The length of each stage depends upon the emergency situation. Notification/ Warning- is the first stage of response. Warning should be issued to two specific groups: (a) The general public; and (b) Departments, individuals, or agencies who must respond to the emergency. In most emergency situations, the general public can be informed through radio and television; however, those in the immediate danger area should be informed by more direct means using public address systems. Those departments, individuals or agencies, which must be alerted should be informed according to the emergency preparedness plan. The alert could be done by two-way radio, telephone, messenger or local television and radio bulletins. The people who are expected to respond must be given enough information so that they know what to do. Practically no warning can be given for an earthquake as there exists no scientific method to predict its occurrence. However, some of the conventional ways of earthquake prediction have been practiced since ancient times, the most relevant being the erratic behavior of animals just before an earthquake and it can be considered as an indicator of earthquake. Immediate Public Safety deals primarily with providing emergency medical services, search & rescue and evacuation from the disaster area. The primary concern is for safety of the people and treatment of those who are injured. Property Security- This stage deals primarily with the protection of property in the community. Primarily local police carry out the actions in this stage. The police should see that property is safe and looting or vandalism does not occur. The fire department aids in prevention of further damage to surrounding property. The Public Works/ Highways Department/ local urban or rural bodies may also play an important part by providing manpower, removing debris or providing street barricades. Public Welfare consists of two main operations- caring for the people after the emergency and assessing damage. This stage is where it is most important that all the service agencies work closely. During the public welfare stage the prime concern is about mass care for injured, shelter for the homeless, food and clothing for those in need. During this stage assessment of the damage is necessary in order to obtain State or National support. Restoration involves actions that repair the necessities of life, which means restoring utility service and the removal of debris from the disaster scene. Recovery: is the final phase of the emergency management cycle. Recovery continues until all systems return to normal, or near normal. Short- term recovery returns vital life support systems to minimum operating standards. It grows out of the response effort. During the response phase, emergency repairs to buildings are made as protective measures against further damage or injury. Short-term recovery is the restoration of vital services and facilities to minimum standards of operation and safety. Severely damaged buildings are scheduled to be replaced or removed, water and sewer repairs are made, electricity and telephone services returned to normal. Long-term recovery may continue for a number of years, as the community slowly returns to pre-emergency or better conditions. Long-term recovery may include the complete redevelopment of damaged areas. During short-term recovery, buildings are repaired and people’s immediate needs are taken care of and assistance programmes are put into effect. There is no clear-cut distinction when long-term recovery begins. They are not two distinctly different phases of recovery. Long-term recovery is simply those recovery efforts, which are still in operation long after the disaster and includes everything from complete redevelopment of the disaster area to mitigation efforts to prevent a similar disaster on an on-going basis for years after the emergency. The recovery phase of emergency management is just as vital as the mitigation, preparedness, and response phases. A key element in the recovery phase is to develop and implement ways to reduce community's vulnerability to a repeat of a similar emergency and also continued liaison with the State Headquarters and the Central Government for assistance. Redevelopment as mitigation- After a major disaster, certain areas may be completely levelled and new buildings must be designed to take their place. Redevelopment refers to the complete replacement of structures, and not just structure repair. Redevelopment provides the opportunity to reduce the chances that similar structural damage will occur again. The redevelopment officials (public and private) must think of ways to rebuild the damaged structures so that the next time the same hazard strikes, the impact is greatly reduced. Engineers should evaluate if the building codes respond to particular hazard. Planners should evaluate whether the damaged area should be rezoned for lower density uses. Residents of a disaster-affected area should be asked for their preference for resettlement in the same area or other. The loss of human life and property from a disaster can be substantially reduced by timely issue of warning to the community likely to be affected from the disaster. Similarly, providing a quick response immediately after the disaster can substantially reduce the suffering of the affected people. Organizational structure and Institutional arrangements for emergency management in the State State Emergency Management Planning Committee (SEMPC)- A State Emergency Management Plan must be prepared for each kind of disaster and the details of the organizational structure for emergency management activities should be made known. Responsibility of concerned agencies for the execution of rescue, relief and recovery operations and Standard Operating Procedure for each should be made available. A State Emergency Management Planning Committee (SEMPC) should be constituted with all the stakeholders as members. State Crisis Group (SCG)- The setting up of a State Crisis Group (SCG) will enable quick decision making, operational direction and coordination of the issue of warning and execution of rescue, relief and recovery operations. The responsibilities of the SCG would include: 1. on spot decision making 2. Control and coordination of response and recovery activities 3. Resource mobilization and replenishment 4. Monitoring of overall response & recovery activities. 5. Preparation of reports for submission to State Government through 6. Relief Commissioner State Emergency Manager (SEM)- Different government agencies and the NGOs are supposed to operate within the overall direction and coordination of the Commissioner of Revenue Administration/ Relief Commissioner, who may be designated as the State Emergency Manager (SEM). The individual government agencies and the NGOs will perform the assigned jobs but the State Emergency Manager will appropriately augment their resources by drawing upon resources from other government agencies and the local communities. The Chief Secretary or Commissioner of Revenue Administration can also assign additional responsibilities and functions to different Government agencies to meet the requirements of the situation. During the time of emergency the Chief Secretary or the Commissioner of Revenue Administration who is the State Emergency Manager (SEM) would act as the focal point for control and coordination of all activities. His responsibilities would be: 1. Get in touch with the local Army/ Navy/ Air force units for assistance in rescue, evacuation and relief 2. Requisition resources, materials and equipment from all Departments / Organizations of the government and also from private sector 3. Direct industry to activate their onsite and off -site disaster management plan 4. Set up Site Operations Centre in the affected area with desk arrangements 5. Arrange establishment of transit and/ or relief camps, feeding centers and cattle camps. 6. Send Preliminary Information Report and Action Taken Report to the Government. 7. Arrange immediate evacuation whenever necessary State Emergency Control Room (SECR)- The need for directing the operations at the affected site, the need for coordination at the district headquarters and the need for interaction with the State Government to meet the conflicting demands at the time of disaster is the responsibility of the Relief Commissioner and his team. A wellequipped State Emergency Control Room (SECR) in terms of manpower and equipment should be established to help the Relief Commissioner and his team and to perform the following functions: *Collection and compilation of information from the affected area *Documenting information flow *Decision making regarding resource management *Allocation of task to different resource organization *Supply of information to State Government The SECR may have senior representatives in the capacity of Desk Officers from the following key resource agencies: *Search, Rescue & Evacuation desk - Police and Fire Services *Logistics & Welfare desk *Medical desk *Infrastructure desk The Desk Officers should maintain constant contact with the State Crisis Group members and the other district heads to ensure quick decision- making. Activities of State Emergency Control Room (SECR) (a) Normal times- The responsibilities during the normal times will include: *Ensure all warning and communication systems, instruments are in working condition. *Collect information on a routine basis from the State departments on the vulnerability of areas to disasters. *Liaise with SEMPC *Develop status reports of preparedness and mitigation activities in the State. *Ensure appropriate implementation of State Emergency Management Plan *Maintain data bank with regular updating Evaluation & updation of State Emergency Management Plan is the responsibility of SEMPC. However, SEMPC would keep an account of the amendments and accordingly review its response strategy. SECR will be responsible for activating the trigger mechanism in the event of receipt of a warning or occurrence of a disaster. (b) Activities on occurrence of emergency Issue Warning / Alert- On the basis of message received from the forecasting agencies, warning has to be issued for the general public and the departments which play a vital role during emergencies. Issue of correct and timely warning would be one of the prime responsibilities of SECR. For effective dissemination of warning SECR should have a well-planned line of communication. The Relief Commissioner would be the authoritative body to issue warning. Formulation of warning message should consider the target group for which it is issued. (c) Post-emergency activities After an emergency the main responsibility of a SECR would be: *Evaluation of relief and rehabilitation activities in order to assess the nature of state intervention and support, suitability of the organization structure, institutional arrangements, adequacy of Operating Procedures, monitoring mechanisms, information tools, equipment and communication system. *Post -emergency impact studies for long term preventive and mitigation efforts to be taken. Communication Room (Main Message Room)- The police wireless system should continue to be in contact with the SECR. In every district the police have a well-established wireless communication system; therefore, under any emergency the communication resources available with the police may be utilized. During disaster, SECR would be connected to Site Operations Centre and the facilities at various Desks. Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) are how Emergency Management accomplishes many of the tasks of responding to an emergency. List of Emergency Support Functions ESF No. 1 – Communication ESF No. 2 – Public Health and Sanitation ESF No. 3 – Power ESF No. 4 – Transport ESF No. 5 – Donation ESF No. 6 – Search and Rescue ESF No. 7 – Public Works and Engineering ESF No. 8 – Food ESF No. 9 – Information and Planning ESF No. 10 – Relief Supplies ESF No. 11 – Drinking water ESF No. 12 – Shelter ESF No. 13 – Media ESF No. 14 – Helplines Planning Process The Planning process for disaster management is based on the principle that response and level of preparedness required are dependent on the extent of vulnerability and the level of capacity to deal with situations. Disasters may be graded at three levels: L1: District Level Disaster within the capabilities of the district administration to deal with L2: State Level Disaster within the capabilities of State Government to deal with L3: National Level Disaster requiring major intervention of the Central Government L0: No disaster situation- This is the level at which surveillance, preparedness and mitigation activities must be focussed on Trigger mechanism Trigger Mechanism is a quick response mechanism, which would spontaneously set the vehicle of management into motion on the road to disaster mitigation process. The trigger mechanism has been envisaged as a preparedness plan whereby the receipt of a single of an impending disaster would simultaneously energise and activate the mechanism for response and mitigation without loss of crucial time. This would entail all the participating managers to know in advance the task assigned to them and the manner of response. Identification of available resources, including manpower, material and equipment and adequate delegation of financial and administrative powers are prerequisites to successful operation of the trigger mechanism. As and when a disaster takes place, be it natural or man-made, the managers struggle to mitigate its effects on human lives and material losses. The immediate response in all disasters has more or less the same parameters. These are to provide rescue and relief and save the precious human life. Thus, the emergency response of the disaster managers is a factor independent of the types of intensity of the disasters. As and when the disasters strike or take place, the managers are required to swing in action without losing time. Generally, in such situations, the managers start organising, planning and activating the mitigation process. On the other hand, the event had already taken place and the need of that hour is to start the mitigation process and virtually no time can be spared at that stage for the activities like organizing and planning. Time is the essence of the immediate relief and rescue operations to save human lives and mitigate human miseries for the next 48 to 72 hours. Thereafter, actually what is required to be done is a part of long term rehabilitation and reconstruction programmes. The trigger mechanism in fact is a preparedness plan in which all the participating managers, and actors know in advance the task assigned to them and the manner in which they have to be prepared themselves to respond. In fact the trigger mechanism is in essence the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) in which the implementation of the efforts on ground is well laid down. Generally, the activities which include evacuation, search and rescue, temporary shelter, food, drinking water, clothing, health and sanitation, communications, accessibility, and public information which are very important components of disaster management, would follow on the activation of the Trigger Mechanism. All these major activities which are common in all types of disasters will require sub-division and preparation of sub-action plans by each specified authority. They will be required to list all requirements and their availability within the prescribed response time. Separate SOPs need to be in place for each front line agency like Police, Fire- Service, PWD, Highways, Health Departments. The Trigger Mechanism requires the disaster managers to: *Evolve an effective signal / warning mechanism. *Identify activities and their levels. *Identify sub-activities under each activity / level of activity. *Specify authorities for each level of activity and sub-activity. *Determine the response time for each activity. *Work out individual plans of each specified authority to achieve the activation as per the response time. *Have Quick Response Teams for each specified authority. *Have alternative plans and contingency measures. *Provide appropriate administrative and financial delegations to make the response mechanism functionally viable. *Undergo preparedness drills. Paradigm Shift towards Prevention and Reduction- Recognizing the rapidly rising world-wide toll of human and economic losses due to natural disasters, the UN General Assembly in 1989 took a decision to launch a far reaching global undertaking during the nineties to save human lives and reduce the impact of natural disasters. With this aim in mind, the decade1990-2000 was declared as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The objective of the IDNDR was to reduce, through concerted international action, especially in developing countries, the loss of life, property damage and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones, landslides, locust infestations, drought and desertification and other calamities of natural origin. By the year 2000, as per the plan of the IDNDR, all countries should have had: a. Comprehensive national assessments of risks from natural hazards, with these assessments taking into account their impact on developmental plans, b. Mitigation plans at national and/ or local levels, involving long term prevention and preparedness and community awareness, and c. Ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems and widespread dissemination of such warnings. Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness Strategy *Development of a culture of prevention as an essential component of an integrated approach to disaster reduction. *Prepare and maintain in a state of readiness ‘Preparedness and Response Plans’ at National, State and District levels. *Adoption of a policy of self reliance in each vulnerable area. *Education and training in disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness for enhancement of capabilities at all levels. *Identification and strengthening of existing centres of excellence in *order to improve disaster prevention, reduction and mitigation capabilities. Ushering in a New Culture of Disaster Management Culture of Preparednes- Hitherto, the approach towards coping with the effects of natural disasters has been post-disaster management involving many problems such as law and order, evacuation and warnings, communications, search and rescue, firefighting, medical and psychiatric assistance, provision of relief and sheltering, etc. After the initial trauma of the occurrence of the natural disaster is over within the first few days or weeks, the phase of reconstruction and economic, social and psychological rehabilitation is taken up by the people themselves and by the government authorities. Soon thereafter the occurrence of the disaster is relegated to historic memory till the next one occurs either in the same area or in some other part of the country. It is not possible to do away with the devastation of natural hazards completely. However, experience has shown that destruction from natural hazards can be minimized by the presence of a wellfunctioning warning system, combined with preparedness on the part of the vulnerable community. Warning systems and preparedness measures reduce and modify the scale of disasters. A community that is prepared to face disasters, receives and understands warnings of impending hazards and has taken precautionary and mitigatory measures, will be able to cope better and resume their normal life sooner. Culture of Prevention- One of the many lessons learnt by victims of various natural disasters is that the aftermath of a disaster can be even worse than the disaster event itself. Thus, there is a need to acknowledge the necessity for efforts towards disaster prevention. However, people are often surprised by the concept of reducing disasters. How, it is often asked, can a natural disaster such as an earthquake or a cyclone be reduced or prevented? Natural occurrences such as floods, earthquakes, cyclones, etc., simply cannot be avoided altogether, they are a part of the environment we live in. What can be done, however, is to take preventive measures at various levels of society in order to make the impact of such natural hazards as harmless as possible for people and people’s properties. The impact of a natural hazard can be reduced, its worst effects can be prevented. Early Warning- Building codes do not exist against storm surge inundation. Prescribed means today to save life and properties against storm surge inundation is to evacuate people to safer places as quickly as possible on receipt of warnings. Coordinated early warning systems against tropical cyclone are now in existence around the globe and it is possible to warn the affected population at least 24 to 36 hours in advance about the danger from a tropical cyclone. By taking advantage of early warning systems, it is now possible by prepared and knowledgeable communities to minimize the loss of lives and properties. Development Planning- There is a need to integrate development plans and regulations with disaster-mitigation. The construction of roads, railways lines, bridges, etc., should be according to the topography and geology of that area in terms of risk and vulnerability. All development projects (engineering and nonengineering) including irrigation and industrial projects should be targeted towards disaster-mitigation. Environmental protection, afforestation programmes, pollution control, construction of earthquake-resistance structures should have priority for implementation.What is important is to introduce a culture of prevention in disaster managers and all communities, at all levels: action to save lives must be taken before disaster strikes. For instance, most of the deaths and casualties in an earthquake are caused not by the earthquake itself but due to the collapse of buildings and concrete structures. Hence earthquake proof features need to be planned and incorporated at the structural design itself. Retrofitting of existing structures will also mitigate the effects of an earthquake. Such preventive measures are essential also in a State like Tamil Nadu considering that much of the State has been upgraded to Zone III in the revised seismic Zonation map of India, on par with Latur in Maharashtra. The building control regulations need to be revised accordingly. Financial Arrangements The policy arrangements for meeting relief expenditure related to natural disasters are, by and large, based on the recommendations of successive Finance Commissions. The two main windows presently open for meeting such expenditures are the Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) and National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF). The Calamity Relief Fund is used for meeting the expenditure for providing immediate relief to the victims of cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood and hailstorm. Expenditure on restoration of damaged capital works should ordinarily be met from the normal budgetary heads, except when it is to be incurred as part of providing immediate relief, such as restoration of drinking water sources or provision of shelters etc., or restoration of communication links for facilitating relief operations. The amount of annual contribution to the CRF of each State for each of the financial years 2000-01 to 2004-05 is as indicated by the Finance Commission. Of the total contribution indicated, the Government of India contributes 75 percent of the total yearly allocation in the form of a non-plan grant, and the balance amount is contributed by the State Government concerned. A total of Rs.11,007.59 crore was provided for the Calamity Relief Fund from 2000-05. Pursuant to the recommendations of the Eleventh Finance Commission, apart from the CRF, a National Calamity Contingency Fund(NCCF) Scheme came into force with effect from the financial year 2000-01 and would be operative till the end of the financial year 2004-05. NCCF is intended to cover natural calamities like cyclone, drought, earthquake, fire, flood and hailstorm, which are considered to be of severe nature requiring expenditure by the State Government in excess of the balances available in its own Calamity Relief Fund. The assistance from NCCF is available only for immediate relief and rehabilitation. Any reconstruction of assets or restoration of damaged capital should be financed through re-allocation of Plan funds. The initial corpus of the National Fund is Rs.500 crores, provided by the Government of India. This fund is required to be recouped by levy of special surcharge for a limited period on central taxes. Assistance provided by the Centre to the States from the National Fund is to be financed by levy of a special surcharge on the central taxes for a limited period. A list of items and norms of expenditure for assistance chargeable to CRF / NCCF in the wake of natural calamities is prescribed in detail from time to time. There are a number of important ongoing schemes that specifically help reduce disaster vulnerability. Some of these are: Integrated Wasteland Development Programme (IWDP), Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP), Desert Development Programme (DDP), Flood Control Programmes, National Afforestation & Eco-development Programme (NA&ED), Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme (ARWSP), Crop Insurance, Sampurn Grameen Rozgar Yojana (SGRY), Food for Work etc. The High Power Committee (HPC) constituted by GOI on Disaster Management which submitted its report in October 2001 recommended that at least 10 percent of plan funds at the national, state and district levels be earmarked and apportioned for schemes which specifically address areas such as prevention, reduction, preparedness and mitigation of disasters. The Eleventh Finance Commission too paid detailed attention to the issue of disaster management and, in its chapter on calamity relief, came out with a number of recommendations, of which the following have a direct bearing on the Plan: a) Expenditure on restoration of infrastructure and other capital assets, except those that are intrinsically connected with relief operations and connectivity with the affected area and population, should be met from the plan funds on priority basis. b) Medium and long-term measures be devised by the concerned Ministries of the Government of India, the State Governments and the Planning Commission to reduce, and if possible, eliminate, the occurrences of these calamities by undertaking developmental works. c) The Planning Commission, in consultation with the State Governments and concerned Ministries, should be able to identify works of a capital nature to prevent the recurrence of specific calamities. These works may be funded under the Plan. In order to move towards safer development, development projects should be sensitive towards disaster mitigation. With the kind of economic losses and developmental setbacks that the country has been suffering year after year, it makes good economic sense to spend a little extra today in a planned way on steps and components that can help in prevention and mitigation of disasters, than be forced to spend many multiples more later on restoration and rehabilitation. The design of development projects and the process of development should take the aspect of disaster reduction and mitigation within its ambit; otherwise, the development ceases to be sustainable and eventually causes more hardship and loss to the nation. Sources: (1) Draft Tenth Five Year Plan – Union Planning Commission (2) Report (October 2001) of High Powered Committee on Disaster Management set up by GOI (Deptt. of Agr. & Coopn., Ministry of Agr.) (3) Disaster Mgm. Plan, Institute of Disaster Management, M.P. & notes of Prateep V. Phillip, IPS (TN).

 Cold wave

A cold wave is a rapid fall in temperature within a 24 hour period requiring substantially increased protection to agriculture, industry, commerce, and social activities. The precise criterion for a cold wave is determined by the rate at which the temperature falls, and the minimum to which it falls. This minimum temperature is dependent on the geographical region and time of year

A cold wave can cause death and injury to livestock and wildlife. Exposure to cold mandates greater caloric intake for all animals, including humans, and if a cold wave is accompanied by heavy and persistent snow, grazing animals may be unable to reach needed food and die of hypothermia or starvation. As a result of the after affects of these temperatures (i.e. cold, flu, pneumonia, etc.) all contributes to hypothermia.

Fires become even more of a hazard during extreme cold. Water mains may break and water supplies may become unreliable, making fire fighting more difficult. The air during a cold wave is typically denser and any cold air that a fire draws in is likely to cause a more intense fire because the colder, denser air contains more oxygen.

Cold waves that bring unexpected freezes and frosts during the growing season in mid-latitude zones can kill plants during the early and most vulnerable stages of growth, resulting in crop failure as plants are killed before they can be harvested economically. Such cold waves have caused famines. At times as deadly to plants as drought, cold waves can leave a land in danger of later brush and forest fires that consume dead biomass. One extreme was the so-called Year  without a Summer of 1816, one of several years during the 1810s in which numerous crops failed during freakish summer cold snaps after volcanic eruptions that reduced incoming sunlight.

Countermeasures

·                     Provision of shelters

·                     stock up on food, water, and other necessities before a cold wave.

·                     Choose to migrate to places of milder climates, at least during the winter.

·                     Smudge pots can bring smoke that prevents hard freezes on a farm or grove.

·                      Vulnerable crops may be sprayed with water that will paradoxically protect the plants by freezing and absorbing the cold from surrounding air.

Historical cold waves

Contemporary cold waves (2001-date)

·         Early 2012 European cold wave - 590 people died during a cold snap with temperatures falling below −35 °C (−31 °F) in some regions. Ukraine is the worst hit, with over 100 deaths related to the cold.

·         Winter of 2010–2011 in Great Britain and Ireland - It was referred to as The Big Freeze by national medias in both United Kingdom and Ireland and it was the coldest winter in Britain for 31 years with an average temperature of 1.51 °C (34.72 °F). The UK had its coldest December ever, since records began in 1910, with a mean temperature of −1 °C (30.2 °F). It easily broke the previous record of 0.1 °C (32.18 °F), set in December 1981.

·         2007 Northern Hemisphere cold wave - All of Canada and most of the United States underwent a freeze after a two-week warming that took place in late March & early April. Crops froze, wind picked up, and snow drizzled much of the United States. Some parts of Europe also experienced unusual cold winter-like temperatures, during that time.

20th-century cold waves

·         1995 White Earthquake in southern Chile - On August 1995 southern Chile was struck by a cold wave consisting in two successive cold fronts. Fodder scarcity caused a severe livestock starvation. Cows and sheep were also buried in snow. In parts of Tierra del Fuego up to 80% of the sheep livestock died.

·         1994 Northern US/Southern Canada cold outbreak - January 1994 was the coldest month recorded over many parts of the northeast and north-central United States, as well as Southern Canada, or coldest since the late 1970s in some locations. Many overnight record lows were set. Cold outbreaks continued into February but the severity eased somewhat. The cold also extended further south than usual into Texas bringing snowfall and temperatures lower than −20 °F (−28.9 °C) to parts of the state, Florida also experienced cold and snowfall, even once flurries were reported north of Miami and damage to the citrus crop in central Florida was extensive. Detroit, Michigan saw their coldest temperature since 1985.

Incidence of Heat Wave in South Asia (2007)

A heat wave is a hot period, which lasts from a few days to a few weeks, and which may be accompanied by high humidity. Severe heat waves could damage crop, and kill from hyperthermia.

If accompanied by drought, heat waves can lead to wildfires. As per the assessment made by IMD, the 2007 extreme heat waves in India were considered to be the fourth warmest year on record since 1901. In 2007, the annual average air temperature over India was 0.55 0 C above the averages between 1900 and 1961.1.  Further, as per the assessment, eight of the ten warmest years occurred in the decade 1997-2007. These warmest years were 2002, 2006, 2003, 2007, 1998, 2004, 1999, and 2001, in the order of warmness.

In India, the heat waves during April to June 2007 led increasingly higher temperatures. The heat waves were observed over coastal Andhra and Telangana during May.2.  The western Himalayan region was also warmer than normal during the last week of March and April and the first week of May 2007. As per EMDAT data, these events claimed more than 72 lives. The heat wave raised the maximum temperature above 5-7O C over the northern and central parts of India during the first 10 days of June 2007, which killed 72 people  during that period. The temperature anomalies of 2-10 June compared to the 1961 to 1990 average were higher over many parts of India

As per a Relief Web report, the 2007 heat wave in Pakistan claimed 232 lives.3,4 In June, more than 70 people died in the Central province of Punjab. Temperature to the extent of 50O

C was recorded over the North-West Frontier Province. The meteorological department registered a record maximum temperature of 52O C at Sibi.4

 

 Global warming

 

Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.[3][4][5][6] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations.[7][A]

Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest.[8] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[9][10]

Future warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe.[11] The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[12] Warming is expected to bestrongest in the Arctic and would be associated with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include a more frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, ocean acidification and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and theloss of habitat from inundation.[13][14]

Proposed policy responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future geoengineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[15] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change.[16] Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[17]:10[18][19][20]:9 and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[17]:13[20]:10[21][22] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[23] and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[23][B]Reports published in 2011 by the United Nations Environment Programme[24] and the International Energy Agency[25] suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target.

Observed temperature changes

The Earth's average surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[27] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and theLittle Ice Age.[28]

The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups.[29] Examples include sea level rise (water expands as it warms),[30] widespread melting of snow and ice,[31] increasedheat content of the oceans,[29] increased humidity,[29] and the earlier timing of spring events,[32] e.g., the flowering of plants.[33] The probability that these changes could have occurred by chance is virtually zero.[29]

Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[34][35][36] Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, "the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years."[37] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 °C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 °C) and 1998 (+0.51 °C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant...

Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global temperatures are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[39] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[40][41] 2010 was also an El Niño year. On the low swing of the oscillation, 2011 as an La Niña year was cooler but it was still the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880. Of the 13 warmest years since 1880, 11 were the years from 2001 to 2011. Over the more recent record, 2011 was the warmest La Niña year in the period from 1950 to 2011, and was close to 1997 which was not at the lowest point of the cycle.[42]

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[43] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[44] The northern hemisphere warms faster than the southern hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[45]

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

The climate system can respond to changes in external forcings.[47][48] External forcings can "push" the climate in the direction of warming or cooling.[49] Examples of external forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[50] Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures

Greenhouse gases

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896

Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[54][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide(CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7%.[55][56][57] Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[58]These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[59][60][61][62] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[63] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[64]

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[65] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[66][67]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions, e.g., see the figure opposite. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[68][69]:289

Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[70] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[71][72] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[73] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[74] This is an increase of 90–250% above the concentration in the year 1750.

The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction ofstratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[75][76] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger 

Particulates and soot

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990.[78] The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion – CO2 and aerosols – have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[79] Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[80]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[81] Sulfates act ascloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[82] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reducesgrowth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[83] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[84]

Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[85] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[86] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere

Solar activity

Main articles: Solar variation and Solar wind

Since 1978, output from the Sun has been precisely measured by satellites.[90] These measurements indicate that the Sun's output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth. In the three decades since 1978, the combination of solar and volcanic activity probably had a slight cooling influence on the climate.[91]

Climate models have been used to examine the role of the sun in recent climate change.[92] Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings.

Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have changed.[93] Models and observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere (called thetroposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere).[94][95] Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If the sun was responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.

Observed and expected environmental effects

Main article: Effects of global warming

"Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. "Attribution" of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence.[119] Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.[120]

Natural systems

Main article: Physical impacts of climate change

Global warming has been detected in a number of natural systems. Some of these changes are described in the section on observed temperature changes, e.g., sea level rise and widespread decreases in snow and ice extent.[121] Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[122]

Even with policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow over time.[123]

In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the 21st century[124] range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could contribute 4–6 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise.[125]

Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[123] Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in September by 2037.[126]

It is calculated that, with high statistical confidence, certain weather events, such as the heat waves in Texas and the 2003 European heat wave, would not have occurred without global warming. Extremely hot outliers, defined as three standard deviations from climatology records, now cover about 10% of the land surface and, under present trends, would be the norm by 2050. These temperatures are expected to exacerbate the hydrological cycle, with more intense droughts and floods.[127] The effect on hurricane activity is less certain.[128]

Ecological systems

Main article: Climate change and ecosystems

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[121] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[123] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[129] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[130]

Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity. This process is known as ocean acidification and has been called the "equally evil twin" of global climate change.[131] Increased ocean acidity decreases the amount of carbonate ions, which organisms at the base of the marine food chain, such as foraminifera, use to make structures they need to survive. The current rate of ocean acidification[132]is many times faster than at least the past 300 million years, which included four mass extinctions that involved rising ocean acidity, such as the Permian mass extinction, which killed 95% of marine species. By the end of the century, acidity changes since the industrial revolution would match the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred over 5000 years and killed 35–50% of benthic foraminifera.[133]

Large-scale and abrupt impacts

Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems.[134] Two examples are ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.[135]

Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, and might also be irreversible. An example of abrupt climate change is the rapid release of methane from permafrost, which would lead to amplified global warming.[136] Scientific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally poor.[137] However, the probability of abrupt changes appears to be very low.[138][136] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained over longer time periods.[138]

Observed and expected effects on social systems

Further information: Effects of global warming#Social systems and Regional effects of global warming#Regional impacts

Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme-weather events rather than gradual climate change.[139] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[140] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[141] and small but discernable effects on human health.[142] Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[143] Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this[clarification needed] magnitude of warming.[144][145]

Food security

See also: Climate change and agriculture

Under present trends, by 2030, maize production in Southern Africa could decrease by up to 30% while rice, millet and maize in South Asia could decrease by up to 10%.[146] By 2080, yields indeveloping countries could decrease by 10% to 25% on average while India could see a drop of 30% to 40%.[147] By 2100, while the population of three billion is expected to double, rice and maize yields in the tropics are expected to decrease by 20–40% because of higher temperatures without accounting for the decrease in yields as a result of soil moisture and water supplies stressed by rising temperatures.[13]

Future warming of around 3 °C (by 2100, relative to 1990–2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[140] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[142] Warming above 3 °C could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[148]

Habitat inundation

In small islands and megadeltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.[149][150] This could lead to issues of statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu[151] and homelessness in countries with low lying areas such as Bangladesh.

Responses to global warming

Mitigation

Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[152] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies.[67]:192[153] Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increasedrenewable energy commercialisation, energy conservation, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[154]

In order to limit warming to within the lower range described in the IPCC's "Summary Report for Policymakers"[155] it will be necessary to adopt policies that will limit greenhouse gas emissions to one of several significantly different scenarios described in the full report.[156] This will become more and more difficult with each year of increasing volumes of emissions and even more drastic measures will be required in later years to stabilize a desired atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.[157]

Adaptation

Main article: Adaptation to global warming

Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention.[158] Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.[154] The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.[154]

A concept related to adaptation is "adaptive capacity," which is the ability of a system (human, natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences.[159] Unmitigated climate change (i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions) would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.[160]

Views on global warming

See also: Scientific opinion on climate change

There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[161] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[162]